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The United States would need support from the 34 other countries who sit on the IAEA board of governors for military site inspections. But the new administration has so far not contacted the IAEA, the U.N. nuclear watchdog responsible for verifying Iran's adherence to the deal formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said. "This is a very early stage of the Trump administration but we are very willing to have interaction with them as soon as possible," he told reporters on the sidelines of a summit in Dubai. The IAEA remains in "constant interaction" with U.S. civil servants. Amano said "Iran is implementing the JCPOA" apart from some breaches that saw its stock of heavy water slightly exceed the limit set under agreement which have been rectified. Under the deal, Iran is allowed to have 130 tonnes of heavy water. Heavy water reactors can more efficiently produce plutonium, which can be used in weapons.
All of this is taking place against the backdrop of an economy in which wage growth is weak, household debt is still relatively high on a historic basis as a percentage of income and we have no policy room on the monetary side, with limited political appetite for policy on the fiscal side. To me, the pre-conditions for this profits recession speak to downside risk, both for risk assets and for the real economy. None of the data speaks to recession in the real economy right now. We are seeing a slowing of job growth and likely of trend economic growth as well. But with a profits recession hitting, the potential for further downside is high." Warning 2 - Margin Debt Recently, Doug Ramsey, Chief Investment Officer for Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, concurred with that view stating: "Margin debt contracting is a sign of loss of investor confidence and it's confirmation of a lot of other evidence we have that we've entered a cyclical bear market. We got a lot of traditional warning signs leading up to the high in terms of market action, and deteriorating breadth and margin debt is important to the supply-demand analysis." As I have discussed previously, the importance of margin debt as it relates to the market should not be dismissed. To wit: "While 'this time could certainly be different,' the reality is that leverage of this magnitude is 'gasoline waiting ผ้าปูที่นอน ภาษาอังกฤษ on a match.' When an event eventually occurs, that creates a rush to sell in the markets, the decline in prices will reach a point that triggers an initial round of margin calls. Since margin debt is a function of the value of the underlying "collateral," the forced sale of assets will reduce the value of the collateral further triggering further margin calls. Those margin calls will trigger more selling forcing more margin calls, so forth and so on.
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